MODULE
10: MEDITERRANEAN SCENARIO DEVELOPMENT FOR LOCAL CLIMATE CHANGE
Module Leader: Dr
J. P. Palutikof (CRU, University of East Anglia)
Topic
10.1 Large scale circulation regimes and storm tracks (Corte
Real, University of Lisbon)
- To infer, over key areas, changes in
storm tracks from changes in circulation weather types
(CWTs). To develop an objective scheme to identify storm
tracks. To apply the methodology developed to daily
outputs of control and perturbed GCM runs. To assess
implications of charges in storm tracks on changes of
precipitation types and intensity.
Topic
10.2 Scenarios for target areas - extreme events (Palutikof,
CRU, University of East Anglia)
- To validate daily output from a
transient experiment from the UK Meteorological Office
GCM (UKTR) for the four target areas against
observations. To examine the sensitivity of the
validation results to the routine used to interpolate the
GCM results to the observation sites. To generate daily
maximum and minimum temperature scenarios for the four
target areas, using methods developed in MEDALUS I and
II, and compare the results with the predictions form raw
model data. To finalise the methods under development in
MEDALUS I and II to generate daily precipitation
scenarios. To apply these methods to the four target
areas, and compare the results with those derived from
raw model data. To analyse the generated daily time
series with respect to the effects of global warming on
extreme event occurrence.
Topic
10.3 Classification of weather types (Mariani,
ERSAL, Milan)
- The analysis of the changes in
temperature and rainfall. The analysis of the variations
of the extreme events. To produce a set of methodologies
of dynamic climatology techniques for interpretation of
climatic changes, for downscaling the results of general
circulation models (post processing techniques), to study
the linkages between weather types and extreme events, to
study the persistence of different weather types and the
probabilities of transition form one type to another.
All MEDALUS reports
from this and other modules are listed in the document and data
archive. Reports relating to this module will be found in the
MEDALUS III: Regional Indicators Project volumes. Some of the
more recent reports can be downloaded from this site.
Older reports are obtainable from the MEDALUS Project Office,
free of charge.
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